Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.212200 1.379331 1.558255 1.763719 1.992798 2.240005 2.526608
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.959534 1.179004 1.429789 1.736350 2.099690 2.515234 3.025037
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.802793 1.060028 1.372306 1.776485 2.282618 2.892072 3.677699
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.661528 0.938329 1.295017 1.783027 2.427191 3.241520 4.340840
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.577402 0.877399 1.286597 1.876442 2.693996 3.774580 5.295582
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.468282 0.764869 1.194032 1.846635 2.796951 4.110125 6.036406
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.390060 0.684007 1.134546 1.855776 2.956370 4.541913 6.958502
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.321294 0.605423 1.066777 1.843826 3.085073 4.946650 7.889737
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.279972 0.564461 1.051896 1.912141 3.344559 5.571933 9.210023
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.241885 0.521903 1.027996 1.963101 3.584223 6.194156 10.591643
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.205782 0.475683 0.990412 1.985843 3.781296 6.771335 11.962716
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.175007 0.433382 0.953026 2.003770 3.973009 7.360452 13.411988
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.139210 0.373384 0.873956 1.938538 4.021149 7.734650 14.580137
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.109960 0.320183 0.798289 1.867909 4.051251 8.084045 15.748640
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.091993 0.289180 0.763988 1.876280 4.235171 8.731140 17.509762
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.075284 0.256372 0.718900 1.854530 4.357594 9.280474 19.153704
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.066327 0.242399 0.715862 1.926391 4.683831 10.253046 21.677139
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.053191 0.211460 0.663628 1.875501 4.742673 10.712029 23.274258
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.044148 0.190133 0.631613 1.867710 4.895756 11.376703 25.334813
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.036111 0.168988 0.594942 1.841540 5.003730 11.960407 27.289767
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.031746 0.159550 0.590026 1.897572 5.312071 12.996360 30.250276
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.027577 0.149157 0.579803 1.937738 5.588104 13.990355 33.209522
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.023458 0.137095 0.561263 1.951384 5.800656 14.865778 35.993528